Back to Macro Indicators

Understanding Macro Indicators

A comprehensive guide to interpreting our macro forecasting system and making informed investment decisions.

Market Overview Gauge

Risk Score Scale (-1 to 1)

The gauge displays our Total Macro Risk Score, ranging from -1 (Extreme Sell) to +1 (Strong Buy). The current score shows market sentiment and opportunity strength.

  • Strong Buy (0.5 to 1.0): Strong bullish signal, favorable market conditions
  • Buy (0.0 to 0.5): Moderate bullish signal, potential upside opportunity
  • Hold (-0.2 to 0.0): Neutral signal, wait for clearer direction
  • Sell (-0.5 to -0.2): Moderate bearish signal, consider reducing exposure
  • Strong Sell (-1.0 to -0.5): Strong bearish signal, significant downside risk

Weekly Allocations

These show our recommended portfolio allocation across SPY (stocks), GLD (gold), and TLT (bonds) based on current macro conditions. Allocations are updated weekly and represent optimal portfolio positioning.

Current Asset Regimes

These badges show the current regime classification for each asset. The regime indicates whether our system is detecting a buy, sell, or hold opportunity for that specific asset.

Individual Asset Indicators

Understanding the Charts

Each chart displays the actual price history of the asset (SPY, GLD, TLT, or MACRO composite). The line itself shows the market price movement over time.

The colors represent our forecasting system's regime classifications at different points in time:

  • Dark Teal: Strong Buy signal - high conviction opportunity
  • Lime Green: Buy signal - moderate conviction opportunity
  • Yellow: Hold signal - neutral, wait for clearer direction
  • Orange: Sell signal - moderate caution advised
  • Dark Red: Strong Sell signal - high risk conditions

Time Period Filters

Use the time period buttons (1M, 3M, 6M, 1YR, 3YR) to zoom in on specific timeframes. Different time periods can reveal different patterns and help you understand both short-term and long-term trends.

How to Use This Information

1. Check the Market Overview

Start with the gauge to understand overall market conditions. A score closer to 1 suggests favorable conditions, while a score closer to -1 suggests caution.

2. Review Asset-Specific Signals

Look at individual asset indicators (SPY, GLD, TLT) to see which asset classes are showing opportunities. The color-coded lines show where our system identified potential buy/sell zones historically.

3. Consider Portfolio Allocations

Use the weekly allocations as a guide for portfolio positioning. These percentages reflect optimal diversification based on current macro conditions and risk levels.

4. Remember: Signals Are Probabilities

Even a "Buy" signal doesn't guarantee immediate gains. The strength of the signal (reflected in the risk score) indicates conviction level. Always consider your own risk tolerance and investment goals.

Important Disclaimer

This macro forecasting system is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.